Week 0 Betting Picks and Anaylsis








Florida State vs Georgia Tech Betting Preview 

  

Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024 

Matchup: 10 Florida State Seminoles vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 

Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland 

  

Spread 

  

Current Line: Florida State -10.5 / Georgia Tech +10.5 

   

Over/Under 

  

Current Total: 55.5 points 

  

Analysis: 

Both teams had strong offenses last season. Florida State ranked No. 7 in expected points added (EPA) per play, while Georgia Tech ranked No. 23. The Yellow Jackets’ offense, led by quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes, returns key playmakers. Meanwhile, Florida State boasts a veteran quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, and an experienced offensive line. 

Neutral site games, especially those played internationally, can be unpredictable due to travel and unfamiliar environments. 

Under have hit at a higher rate than overs in recent Week 0 seasons, likely due to conservative game plans and rusty offenses. 

Weather conditions, especially for neutral site games, can affect scoring and should be monitored closely. 

Teams with returning quarterbacks and established offensive systems tend to perform better in Week 0 compared to those breaking in new starters 

 

  

Best Bet 

My top pick for this game is the under 55.5 total points. It's the first game of the season, and the "better" team is integrating a transfer quarterback into their system. The cold and rainy conditions in Dublin also suggest a lower-scoring game. Additionally, the public is leaning towards the under, with 58% of the tickets currently placed on that side. I’d also consider combining it with GT to cover if you want some SGP action.

 

  

Montana State vs New Mexico Betting Preview 

  

Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024 

Matchup: Montana State Bobcats vs New Mexico Lobos 

Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM 

  

Spread 

  

Current Line: Montana State -12.5 / New Mexico +12.5 

  

Analysis:  

  

  

Over/Under 

  

Current Total: 54.5 points 

  

Analysis: 

Montana State appears to be the stronger team heading into this Week 0 matchup against New Mexico. The Bobcats, an FCS powerhouse, are favored by 11.5 points over the struggling FBS Lobos. Montana State's offense, led by quarterback Tommy Mellott and a strong returning rushing attack, is expected to be potent against New Mexico's defense, which struggled last season. However, the large spread for an FCS team over an FBS opponent is historically unusual, and New Mexico's home-field advantage could keep the game closer than expected. The total is set at 54.5 points, with a slight lean towards the under. Given Montana State's offensive firepower and New Mexico's potential growing pains under a new coaching staff, the over might be worth considering, especially if the Bobcats jump out to an early lead. While Montana State is likely to win, New Mexico covering the spread at home is a possibility to consider. 

FCS teams being favored over FBS opponents is extremely uncommon. In fact, Montana State being favored by 11.5 points over New Mexico is unprecedented in recent years. 

  1. In the last five years, no other FCS team has been favored by more than four points against an FBS team. 
  2. Only four FCS teams have been favored at all against FBS opponents in that span 
  3. Public perception tends to favor the FBS team, even as underdogs, due to their perceived higher level of play. 
  4. Sharp money often sides with the favored FCS team, recognizing the talent disparity that led to the unusual line. 
  5. Totals tend to be lower than average, as FCS teams often employ run-heavy, clock-controlling strategies against FBS opponents. 

  

  

  

Best Bet 

 While it's tempting to automatically back the favored FCS team, each game should be evaluated individually. The unusual nature of these matchups can lead to unpredictable outcomes.  

  

New Mexico is essentially starting from scratch in 2024 after a 4-8 season that led to a coaching change. New head coach Bronco Mendenhall faces a significant rebuilding task, with the Lobos returning just 41% of last year's production. 

  

The biggest questions are on offense, where New Mexico must replace its entire starting offensive line. This presents a challenge for sophomore QB Devon Dampier, who showed promise late in 2023 with 6 TDs and 0 INTs to close the year. He'll face a tough test behind an entirely new front five. 

  

Given Montana State's strong recent track record and New Mexico's uncertainties, backing Montana State to cover the spread seems like a solid play. The Bobcats' established system and returning talent give them an edge over a Lobos team in transition. While Yellowstone may have influenced your Montana State lean, the on-field factors support that instinct in this matchup. 

 

 SMU vs Nevada Betting Preview 

  

Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024 

Matchup: SMU Mustangs vs Nevada Wolf Pack 

Venue: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV 

  

Spread 

  

Current Line: SMU -24.5 / Nevada +24.5 

  

  

  

Over/Under 

  

Current Total: 55.5 points 

  

Analysis: 

SMU enters this Week 0 matchup as a heavy favorite over Nevada, with good reason. The Mustangs are coming off an 11-3 season and boast a potent offense led by quarterback Preston Stone, while Nevada struggled to a 2-10 record last year and is rebuilding under a new coaching staff. SMU's offensive line has been bolstered for their move to the ACC, which should allow them to dominate Nevada's weak run defense (ranked 119th last season). The total is set at 55.5, with the overlooking appealing given SMU's offensive firepower and their tendency to play high-scoring games last season. However, Nevada's offensive uncertainties and SMU's solid defense could keep the score lower than expected. Weather conditions in Reno are favorable, so that shouldn't be a significant factor.   

Best Bet 

 While SMU is likely to win comfortably, the large spread creates some risk for bettors. The over on SMU's team total or a first half spread bet on the Mustangs might offer better value than the full-game spread. 


  

  

Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024 

Matchup: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Delaware State Hornets 

Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI 

  

Spread 

  

Current Line: Hawaii -40 / Delaware State +40 

  

 

Over/Under 

  

Current Total: 56.5 points 

 

Analysis:  

Hawaii opened as a 27-point favorite, but the line has since moved dramatically to -40, indicating strong betting action on the Rainbow Warriors. Delaware State's struggles last season (1-10 record) and the challenges of traveling to Hawaii likely contribute to this large spread. However, the extreme weather forecast with heavy winds and potential rain could impact scoring. 

 The total opened at 51.5 and has moved up to 56.5. While 87% of the betting handle is on the over, only 42% of bets are on the over, suggesting some sharp money on the under. The forecasted poor weather conditions, including 25 mph winds with 40 mph gusts and possible heavy rain, could significantly impact the total. 

  

Best Bet 

  

This is going to be an ugly and you're a sick person if you bet on this game, I am taking Hawaii -40  

  

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