Thursday Night Football Recap and Friday Night Football Pick

 - Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles   

- Location: Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil   

- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET   

- Spread: Eagles -2.5   

- Over/Under Total: 48.5 

  

 

What a night for Thursday Night Football! The Kansas City Chiefs faced off against the Baltimore Ravens in a great game that ended with the Chiefs narrowly winning 27-20, thanks to a dramatic last-second play where the Ravens scored a touchdown but missed the extra point after tight end Isaiah Likely landed out of bounds. For bettors, it was a wild ride—those who took the over were celebrating, while under bettors were left disappointed. And let’s not overlook the fact that the Chiefs covered the spread, reinforcing the running joke that betting against them with Taylor Swift in the stands is a bad idea; after all, they’re now 11-3 when she’s cheering for her boyfriend, Travis Kelce.  

Tonight, is a special night for football fans as the Green Bay Packers kick off their season against the Philadelphia Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil! This is a historic matchup, marking the NFL's first-ever regular-season game in South America, and the energy in the NeoQuímica Arena is off the charts. With over 42,000 fans expected to pack the stadium, both teams are looking to make a strong statement after last season, and to top it all off, Brazilian pop star Anitta will be performing at halftime, adding to the festive atmosphere.  

When it comes to betting on NFL games played internationally, there are some trends to keep in mind. Generally, favorites tend to do well in these matchups, winning most of the time and often covering the spread. However, predicting the total points scored can be a bit tricky. While the over/under doesn’t always hit, when it does, it often goes well over the mark. Interestingly, when teams play in places like London, the usual home field advantage seems to fade away, and the "home" teams often struggle to cover the spread. The travel and unfamiliar environment can really throw teams off their game, leading to some surprising outcomes. So, if you’re thinking about betting on these international games, it’s essential to consider how teams are performing, any injuries, and how well they adapt to the unique setting before placing your bets. 

  

My Pick 

 

I'm going with the Packers to cover the spread, and I might even take them to win outright. Here's why: 

  

Matt LaFleur has been money as an underdog. He's 20-7 against the spread and 16-11 straight up when his team's not favored. That's the best record of any coach with at least 15 games as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. The Packers were 8-4 against the spread as underdogs last season, so they seem to thrive in this role. 

  

On the flip side, the Eagles have been struggling lately when favored. They're 0-5 against the spread in their last five games as favorites. That's a trend that's hard to ignore. 

  

Jordan Love showed a lot of promise last year, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns. With a year of starting experience under his belt, he could be poised for a big game against an Eagles secondary that allowed the third-most receiving yards last season. 

  

The Eagles have made some moves to address their defensive issues, but with rookies potentially playing key roles in the secondary, there might be some growing pains early in the season. 

  

So, while the Eagles are favored, I think the Packers have a real shot at pulling off the upset here.  




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