First Four Picks: Who Survives the Opening Round?

Game 1: The Battle to Face Michigan
We’re kicking off the tournament with a true pick 'em. Both UMBC and Howard are riding winning streaks into the First Four, but their paths here couldn't look more different. 

UMBC played what might be the easiest schedule in the entire NCAA, an absolute cupcake slate. Howard, on the other hand, tested themselves against Missouri and Northwestern, playing them tight before ultimately running out of steam late in those games. They also got crushed by Duke, but we’ll just pretend that didn't happen. Howard went 11-3 in conference play and won the MEAC to earn their spot in the dance.

If UMBC sounds familiar, it’s because they pulled off the impossible in 2018, becoming the first 16-seed to ever take down a 1-seed when they stunned Virginia. However, it's worth noting that no coaches or players remain from that historic squad.

UMBC plays a highly disciplined style of basketball, the kind that basketball purists love. They run a quick offense and allow the fewest free throws in the NCAA, which is going to pose a serious challenge for Howard. Sometimes, you have to look past strength of schedule. Not every major program is willing to schedule a dangerous mid-major. UMBC won the games they had to win, including a massive statement victory against America East powerhouse Vermont.

On paper, this screams "matchup nightmare" for Howard, yet the sportsbooks have left it as a pick 'em. Do they know something we don't? Is this a trap game? Or is there just not enough action on this matchup for them to care? Maybe I'm just overthinking it. We'll get our answers at 6:40 PM Eastern. 

I'm banking on UMBC’s discipline paying off. They won't let Howard run and gun, and they won't give away free points at the charity stripe. 

The Pick: UMBC Moneyline



Game 2: Texas vs. NC State

What do you know? Another year, another big, rebounding-heavy Texas team sitting on the fringe of the tournament. They’re facing off against NC State for an 11-seed and the right to play BYU in the Round of 64.

In total contrast to UMBC, Texas ran an absolute gauntlet this year, playing the second-hardest schedule in the NCAA. The SEC is a legitimate basketball conference now, in case you haven't noticed. However, the Longhorns are limping into the tournament, having gone a dismal 1-5 in their last six games. Here is the quick breakdown on Texas: they can rebound, they shoot free throws well, but they couldn't guard the three-point line if their cattles lives depended on it.

NC State also struggled down the stretch, finishing their regular season on an ugly 1-5 skid. But the beauty of March is that you get to put the regular season behind you and start fresh. NC State features strong guard play, and when their three-point shots are falling, they are a very dangerous team under Will Wade's defensive system. The catch? If you miss against Texas, you aren't getting the offensive rebound. 

That being said, NC State found their stroke in the ACC Tournament, shooting a season-high 56% and 50% in their games before ultimately falling to a solid Virginia squad.

I'm going to side with the better coaching and the team that comes in with the hotter shooting hand. NC State had a much better showing in their conference tournament, and I think that momentum carries over.

The Pick:  NC State

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