Surviving the First Four: Breaking Down the Wednesday Slate

Lehigh looks to continue dancing against Prairie View A&M in the first game of the Wednesday slate, vying to officially grab the 16 seed and play the Gators. You might know Lehigh from when CJ McCollum was still a midget and played his college ball for them, or perhaps you recognize their brown uniform, notably lacking an emblem or logo. Regardless, Lehigh boasts a tradition and culture that has been steadily growing since the McCollum days. They started the season a rough 1-11, making the prospect of March Madness seem like an afterthought. However, returns from injuries, refined offensive plans, and a few more home games in the holy land of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, saw the Hawks save their season, ending with a Patriot League championship as the cherry on top. Lehigh plays a style similar to many mid-majors who can't rely on freak athletes: they slow the game down, take good shots, and play defense like madmen.

This deliberate pace and defensive intensity is a common thread among many mid-majors, especially those smaller schools in the Northeast. It's a strategy born out of necessity, maximizing their strengths against often more athletic opponents.

Now, let's look at Prairie View A&M, a prime example of a different mid-major style. Expected to finish 9th in the SWAC this year, they defied expectations, putting together a respectable season and ultimately winning the SWAC tournament. Their game is a true 94-foot battle, characterized by physical defense and a relentless pursuit of turnovers. Many analysts describe their approach as playing '40 minutes of hell' style basketball. They also dominate the paint, notably scoring 44 points inside during their SWAC semifinal victory. While perhaps less defensively disciplined than Lehigh, they compensate with superior size and athleticism. They are a gritty underdog, playing with house money at this point, with everything to gain and nothing to lose.

To me, this sets up a classic 'letdown spot' for Prairie View. Their 9-9 conference record and conference tournament run contrast sharply with Lehigh's much stronger regular season. Lehigh entered their Patriot League tournament as a number two seed and decisively dismantled number one Boston College in the final. Historically, Lehigh has maintained a pretty decent basketball program, consistently making the tournament since 2012. I believe that experience will ultimately shine through. Therefore, give me Lehigh to cover the three and a half points as a favorite.

Next up, we turn our attention to every casual's favorite team: Miami of Ohio. You know the story: an undefeated regular season, followed by a loss in the second round of the MAC tournament. Despite the early exit, their perfect regular season alone secured them a shot at a First Four play-in, making the MAC a two-bid league for the first time ever. Here's the thing, though: it's the MAC. If this had happened in the Patriot League, no one would have cared. If it weren't for Wednesday night freezing cold football, no one would care about the MAC. They rarely produce NBA-level talent, especially in this new NIL Era, and if I've ever seen a team peak too early, it's this one.

Miami of Ohio now battles SMU for the 11 seed, with the honor of playing Rick Barnes and his Volunteers squad. While SMU isn't a regularly occurring tournament team, they play in a real conference, which is precisely why they are the biggest favorites among the four games. The books know it, and I'm telling you, it's an easy SMU win. That being said, Miami of Ohio has been in close games all season, so them covering isn't entirely off the table. However, there is no team even remotely comparable to an ACC foe like SMU. My pick: SMU to cover the -7.5.